Tuesday, June 28, 2011

“Phased Pullout”-Political/Economic Remedy

Referring to Afghanistan invasion, there were originally two announced goals: 1. Get Bin Laden 2. Neutralize Al-Qaida.
Now, it isn’t so difficult to decide what to do next. Simple! If mission has been accomplished, that’s end of the game and that’s it.
On the other hand, however, there is an ongoing problem with “Taliban militancy.” They belong to the country’s opposition class unofficially - having civil issues and civil remedies. Yes! Culturally, the Pashtuns are raised with guns in their hands and are specially trained to fight any invader at whatever cost.
Now, If President Obama decides to leave the troops where they are at the moment, Pentagon feels more than happy, yet the president is likely to face a political backlash which may cost him his presidency in 2012 elections. Hence; a political calculus over military strategy carries more weight indeed.
Nevertheless, a number of defence and political pundits in Washington feel that Pres Obama was initially stuck in the middle of an intersection, yet facing another difficult scenario where he was somewhat puzzled - not knowing exactly what to do with Afghanistan.
However, he ended up choosing the best “preservative” essential for longevity of his own job in the US presidency for the next term.
Now the US is desperately looking for a political solution via bringing the “angry Taliban” to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, the Afghans have already suffered a lot from the dumb war. Moreover, President Hamid Karzai has already revealed that the US is in talks with Taliban.
Luckily, the opinion polls released hours before the Obama’s address suggest that as many as 65 percent of the Americans are opposed to this war. VOW!
Finally, the US authorities are going ahead with their "pullout plan" to move all combat forces out of Afghanistan by 2014, after full 13 years as envisioned by Donald Rumsfeld.
But, reduction of 10,000 troops this year and 23,000 by next summer before the total pullout in 2014 is not only too little but is too late as well. Thus, a larger and faster withdrawal is necessary to save the unhealthy economy from total ruin.
Had the US been lenient and vigilant enough in the beginning, it could have solved all the disputes on the negotiation table. The nasty war would have been completely avoided. Amicable solution of the disputed issues is always available if there is a will. Surely, a huge collateral damage of property and loss of several thousand innocent lives could have been averted.
Instead, Obama trippled the troop strength creating a major war and a major expectation that US would prevail against the Taliban and destroy the phenomenon of terrorism. But, all in vain - Mr. Obama now knows very well that the Taliban are still undefeated. It isn’t hard to figure out who is defeated instead.
Clumsy political kids always make mess; hence it is harder to figure out what and how much US has gained from this war exactly.
So ironic, Obama in his speech only mentioned about Americans killed in this war but uttered no word on Afghan or Pakistani deaths or collateral damage done to thousands of innocent civilians, who were killed for no fault of theirs.
Who is responsible for all those deaths? Who will pay for the long occupation and devastation of a country that has already suffered so much?
US officials maintain that threat has been effectively neutralised in Afghanistan, the US would withdraw 33,000 troops from Afghanistan, whereas the remainder of 57,000 or so soldiers are staying behind.
As the US looks ahead to its “phased withdrawal” from Afghanistan,yet its eyes are actually on Pakistan as next adventure in pursuit of the remains of al Qaida, if any.
Since, the huge cost of deployment and human lives has actually attracted criticism from congressional leaders as well as the public, President Obama (running for re-election) needed to reassure the American public that the end of the war was near. So he managed to please all the concerned.
Financially straining, there is an extremely big "monthly $10 billion" price tag on the Afghan conflict.
On top of that a slower economic recovery is among the factors affecting the president’s recent verdict.
“Over the last decade, we have spent a trillion dollars on war at a time of rising debt and hard economic times,” Mr. Obama said. “Now, we must invest in America’s greatest resource: our people.”
Usually, foreign occupation is counterproductive. It gives rise to dependency cycle for the invaded land which is heavy burden upon the tax payers of the invading country.
The USSR invaded Afghanistan in search of a gateway to the warm water port in Pakistan or Iran. The Soviets couldn’t stand the tough resistance by the proud Afghans backed by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the US of course.
If the military intervention makes no sense, the objective should be an immediate withdrawal. There is no need for a decade-long deployment of the US troops. The USSR returned home and the US is almost getting out. A destroyed country full of dead ones is going to be left behind.
The effort to transfer responsibility for security to Afghan forces remains unimaginable as the Afghan troops are still unfit for the job. An ongoing Corruption in President Hamid Karzai regime continues to be rampant; hence is thought provoking for the Afghanis and Pakistanis.
Well done! Mr President, you have finally realised to refocus your energies on the economic development of your own people.


Mishi said...

hmmm well said! karzar is just another puppet sitting on Afghans's head..and as long as he is there, no positive outcome can be expected, to remind you, his own brother was proven to be involved in the biggest money scam of this government....as to the pullout phase...no its not that easy!
Before we could demand U.S to leave the region alone, there are some ground realities that need to be addressed....
As par my knowledge and research, its not possible at this point of time...and if it happens ,,,it will be nothing but "reverse"of 80's blunder....
The U.S army can leave only if The Afghan forces are prepared enough..which they are not!!!
there are multiple factors for that....
1- high desertion rate in Afghan Army.
2-lack of Trainers...30,000 more troops were announced in the latest surge by President Obama...and 15,000 of them were to be used as trainers...still they need more professional help to train afghan forces...
3-the Task of managing Afghan Police given to Germany By U.N.O is failed due to lack of interest on Germany 's part. you cant manage a state with the forces only, POlice is the mail pillar of the system.
4- The afghan soldiers are paid 100 dollars par month, while they are offered much more then that by the local Warheads.
5-the social features of Afghan Society is yet to be polished..the process of Rehabilitation is too in its initial phases...
6-The corrupt karzair government is the biggest hurdle in the process of rehabilitation.U.S does not seem to notice this.

So under all these circumstances, you cant just expect them to follow the Exit Policy....and it will be a serious mistake if they do...without a strong Afghan Government, it will be plainly impossible to deal the current scenario....it will be a total mess if U.S keeps on backing the Karzai Government ...the best solution is to hand over the control of Afghanistan to the Afghan People....the true representatives of the people instead of the puppets...they have to involve taliban in the peace process...there is no other way

Tariq Mian said...

Your ‘well worded response’ is worth reading line by line.
Thanks for your time and keeping an eye on the current affairs around you.
I feel your judgment power will eventually drive you to the judiciary benches.
Let me add—a few lines here:
Prima facie, Mr. Obama did a wonderful ground work to facilitate his own re-election.
Beyond doubt, US faces a heavy debt load and “a partial pullout” leaves room for the needed manuvering.
Who knows what would follow in 2014 in actuality?
During the next three years, the police and Afghan security forces need a qualitative training; can be pampered up and made ready to take over to face the ground reality.
“Education is power” ---The people at all levels should become politically aware in order to elect genuine parliament so that a viable rule of law is in place.

shafobeta said...

Very scary situation in the whole region. People are waiting for some relief.

Tariq Mian said...

Yes! shafo you have a point. People do need a quicker relief after a prolonged suffering.

Anonymous said...

Mushrooming growth of corruption or opium is not a bad business.

Naseer Pirzada-- Vancouver BC said...

Thanks Mian sahib for your wisdom in Editorial about this matter.

Tariq Mian said...

@pirzada---thanks for your short comment.

Mishi said...

lolz..I dont know about judiciary but I have been teaching current affairs for some time...
I totally agree with the loan thing..yes U.S is under heavy debt..bulkay ub tou its under CHINa's hold of world economy...so who knows..but still its not that easy as it sounds...they cant leave the mess behind..not this time

Tariq Mian said...

@Mishi-----Recipe for financial disaster:
Worldwide US military bases are costing enormously.
Giving Real Estate mortgage loan at cheaper rate with zero down payment ruined American economy.
Green back is losing its strength and the countries are inching towards getting ready for linking their currency with Chinese currency (YUAN).
The super power suffers from a severe financial crisis. And, its inflation reflects erosion in the purchasing power of money in national and global markets.
Horrible,around 2000 US banks are almost doomed and 10/12 banks are seeking bankruptcy protection right now.
China being the biggest creditor of US dollars runs the risk that the dollars they hold will depreciate in value over time. However, there is a strong likelihood that the US can walk away from its debts.
The Americans have no funds to continue their massive military presence in Afghanistan.
Its best described as "econmic fatigue" of the mighty super power.

I appreciate the discussion.

Tariq Mian said...

Breaking news: The US has decided via new policy----to keep going after the targets wherever they will be.

boota singh said...

its terrible situation in the region.
jis kee laathi os ki bhains
nothing more to say.
case closed.
move on with whatever you have.

Tariq Mian said...

Pakistan should be encouraged to play a leading role to help Afghanistan get out of the messy and dire situation.
This would be good for the entire region.
Peace in the region is fruitful for the whole world.
This is a zone where People are actually sick and tired of the prolonged fatal scenario.
Neighbouring Pakistan suffers the most because of the monsterous aggression by the cruels taking lives of the innocent children and the vulnerable.

After the Indo-Pak became nuclear powers---there is no danger of war between the two rivals----but now this intrusion by the guerella warriors is really worrisome.


well...it was good to go through ur post n the comments here...its quite informative for someone like me who always can't have a real picture of the things happening there bcoz of the biased media across the boarder....

thanks for sharing it n hope to see more such informative post in future too.....

Tariq Mian said...

As per the code of ethics, local or global Media is chiefly responsible for building up a genuine consensus of opinion among the audiance; thus only true information must be shared with the public without any "BIAS" whatsoever.

Media in all countries including BHARAT and Pakistan should enjoy total freedom, but that doesn't mean exploiting state or non state institutions or the civil society. Media can bring the countries on the same page indeed.

BTW, All of my posts appear as "editorial or article" in the Miracle News every 14 days.


Usually, the editorial is on page 7on the printed news paper without my name.
while my article - if any, can be anywhere with my name in the same paper for the benefit of my audience in Vancouver BC Canada or elsewhere of course.

we, as writers must strive for:
"kia hai Haqeeqat kia hai afsaana?"

Thanks for your remarks.
You are most welcome to visit my blog.

Take care


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