Wednesday, September 4, 2013

The Looming Threat of Regional War

Fortunately, in the stormy Mid-East, the extended era of autocratic rulers is collapsing on fast track basis; nevertheless, the related surgeries are extremely painful and unbearable. Maybe, the possible international armed conflict over Syria situation relieves some, while it scares the local population for the possible collateral damage in case there is no negotiated settlement before it’s too late.

After two and half years of his alleged brutality towards the rebels and the killing by chemical attack to shut any opposition voices, Assad is actually fast-inching towards his own collapse. The death toll is alarmingly on the rise. The government troops have not been able to defuse the severe blows from the rebels. The various sources claim that 1,429 died from the attack just on Aug. 21 in a Damascus suburb for which both sides are blaming each other and there is evidence of chemical attacks as well.



Obviously, the embattled Syrian regime faces a strong rebellious force, but Assad's government is in denial mode; it keeps blaming the rebels for the sad episode of chemical attack. Indeed, the rebels have been actively engaged in pushing for the overthrow of Syrian Ruler.

With respect to deadly chemical attack, the UN inspection team awaits for lab results on tissue and soil samples it collected from the scene.

The media coverage has been causing a further divide in the Middle East based on sectarian lines. The Shiite Iran backs Assad; while the non Shiite Arab Gulf allies are supporting the rebels wanting the West to retaliate to oust the Moscow backed Assad.

Now, it seems as if the cold war-style tensions between the Western powers and Moscow are fast re-emerging.

The Syrian use of sarin gas has angered Saudi Arabia, the Arab League, the US, the Great Britain, France and some western countries.

The US being in the driver’s seat wants all allies on board despite the reluctance on the part of a few countries. President Obama appears to be reluctantly ready for a limited action, only after full-fledged backing from the law makers on Sept 9, 2013, he will gain strength. "What we are envisioning is something limited. It is something proportional. It will degrade Assad's capabilities," Obama said. "At the same time we have a broader strategy that will allow us to upgrade the capabilities of the opposition."

Many people want Mr Obama to share the collected evidence of Syrian involvement in chemical attack with local and the international community to win more support for his action.

Although, Obama won some support of the key members in the U.S. Congress for the limited U.S. strikes on Syria to punish President Assad for his “suspected use” of sarin gas against the rebels, there remains a question mark on the legality of any military adventure on his part. Assad specifically denies deploying poison gas to kill civilians.



Republican John Boehner, current Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives, and House Majority Leader Eric Cantor did pledge their support to the commander in chief for military action. The voting in Senate and the House would take place next week, yet the Republican-led House is not easy; most probably, it would be a real challenge for Mr. Obama.



The militant rebels are asking the Western allies to send them more weapons and use their air power to end the prolonged war that has killed more than 100,000 and made millions homeless. Aid agencies continue to deal with the swelling humanitarian crisis in the region of two million refugees.



The United States, France, Australia, Britain and Canada believe the regime of President Bashar Assad is to blame for a chemical weapons attack against innocent Syrian civilians two weeks ago.

Obama seems to be comfortable going forward without the approval of a UN Security Council. Since Obama believes the organisation has been too paralyzed to hold Assad accountable.



"The risks for global peace and security that the present Syria crisis represents, I'm sure, are not smaller than what we have witnessed in any other crisis that we have had since the Vietnam war," said Guterres, a former Portuguese prime minister.

Russia, backed by China, has used its veto power in the U.N. Security Council three times to block resolutions condemning Assad's government and threatening it with sanctions.



More than 2 million Syrians have already crossed borders for refuge creating a humanitarian crisis.

However, the war advocates do face the UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, who said any punitive action against Syria could unleash more turmoil and bloodshed, and advised that such strikes would be legal only in self-defense under the U.N. Charter or if approved by the organization's Security Council. He urged caution.



Russia and China have repeatedly used their veto power in the council to block action against Assad. Russia has been steadfastly opposed to any military action without the approval of the United Nations Security Council, and has expressed doubts about the source of the attack.



"We think history should teach us that we should be waiting for the UN report to come through, and so we're not in support of what they're contemplating right now in the U.S.," said Canadian MP Mr Dewar (NDP), referring to the faulty intelligence that led to the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq a decade ago.

President Obama plans to use the G20 gathering to drum up some material support for a military strike among some of the group's more reluctant leaders.



On the contrary, Robert Fox, executive director of Oxfam Canada, welcomed the renewed diplomatic efforts of the foreign ministers that headed to St. Petersburg this week.



Truth is military action will destroy the chances of a negotiated settlement of the Syrian crisis leading to further fueling the growing Shia-Sunni tensions sweeping the region.



The best way out is a joint US-Russian venture to bring Syria’s warring sides to the negotiating table to bring a viable peace in the region because the conflicts are only ended by negotiation and compromise.

The fact is, just a few people benefit from wars; those who do they end up getting treasure of wealth.

I agree with Bertrand Russell who said, “War does not determine who is right - only who is left.”

12 comments:

Usama Rehman said...

Well Done Tariq Mian!
Its a good summary of what is happening in Th e Mid East.
However I have my own views about the entire saga. Just look at the picture this way......Do u know what happened in Libya when armed Western forces intervened? where is Iraq now??
Have the so-called PEACE propagating Western Nations got over with the Sectarian, Terrorist attacks in Libya and Iraq by their Cold Blooded Intervention?? the answer is a BIG NO!!! They dont understand the gravity of sectarian issues!

they think it will be all peace once they attack Syria without even realizing that they are approaching their Doomsday!

US wants their Debt ceiling to be risen again otherwise they will go bankrupt in upcoming 6-8 months, so how they do that?
SOLUTION? Simple! START A NEW WAR!!!
thats why they are doing this!

And u are supporting this Preposterous, Insane Intervention??!! I can't believe This!!!

Tariq.Mian said...

Usama Rehman, had you read it carefully, you would not have missed a few good points.
For example: In the last part, there is a mention of who beneits from war----and totally ignored my voice for peace and not war.
But, Assad has to go. It's better if he steps down and introduce the people's only government ----elected by the majority of the intellectuals.

Tariq.Mian said...

Truth is military action will destroy the chances of a negotiated settlement of the Syrian crisis leading to further fueling the growing Shia-Sunni tensions sweeping the region. The best way out is a joint US-Russian venture to bring Syria’s warring sides to the negotiating table to bring a viable peace in the region because the conflicts are only ended by negotiation and compromise. The fact is, just a few people benefit from wars; those who do they end up getting treasure of wealth. I agree with Bertrand Russell who said, “War does not determine who is right - only who is left.”

Usama Rehman said...

thanks for the explanation, I respect ur Peace loving Approach.

Hello said...

Hello

Anonymous said...

DAWN.COM
Many lawmakers returning to Washington at the end of a summer recess say many constituents believe the United States should not respond militarily. {REUTERS}

Anonymous said...

aho

musafir said...

Musafir's comment on yahoo news:

Negotiated settlement is the best way to go, otherwise, wars are deadly.
Chemical warfare, conventional warfare, or nuclear warfare are all responsible for horrible humanitarian crises, and the resulted scars never fade away anyway.
There are always ways to settle disputes without wars, because there is difference between humans and ferocious animals.
Especially, the world is supposed to be more civilised now in the 21st century-----(Now or Never).
A genuine democracy throughout the Arab world must be facilitated through peaceful means, because the dictators' ERA is over.
Assad and the rebels must leave the arena, so that a "REAL CALM" takes over.
My love to the innocent people.

narazia said...

Please! no more wars.

Brocha B said...

Great Post, Tariq.
I pray that we do not go to war, but I am just one voice.

Tariq.Mian said...

Thank u Nazaria

Tariq.Mian said...

BROCHA B, thanks for your opinion, and I do appreciate your prayer for peace.

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