The P5+1-Iran Interim Deal, a Historic Step Forward

Every sovereign country has a right to develop better capabilities for its defence, yet discouraging/stopping the development of deadly weapons of mass destruction is vital to the economic prosperity and peace of the world.

Similarly, Tehran’s controversial nuclear program is also seen as a threat by its neighbors and the world powers. The US-Iranian confrontation lasted for a little over three decades giving a severe headache to the regional players. Therefore, a big bundle of sanctions were imposed on Iran by the UN, US and the European Union.

For a last little while, President Obama has been in touch with the newly elected leadership in Tehran on the issue.
Fortunately, there is some relaxation now in the ongoing tense scenario: There is hope ahead - for stability in the Gulf and Mid-East region after successful talks between Iran and the P5+1 (China, US, Russia, France, UK, and Germany). An agreement has been reached, whereby Iran and the P5+1 would move forward during six months to “comprehensive solution” as planned.

In return, Iran appeared to be taking necessary action to keep the deal on track and has agreed to a series of measures as well.

Following are the significant points of the historic Nuclear Deal:

1. Iran accepted to stop enriching uranium beyond 5% neutralising its stockpile of uranium enriched beyond this point
2. Iran accepted to give greater access to inspectors including daily access to its key nuclear sites namely Fordo and Natanz.
3. Iran agreed to stop further development of the Arak plant believed to be capable of producing plutonium.

IRAN GAINS:
1. There will be no new nuclear-related sanctions for six months provided Iran maintains the accord.
2. Some sanctions will be suspended on trading in gold and precious metals, on Iran's car-making sector and its petrochemical exports.
3. Frozen oil sale assets will be transferred in instalments, bringing in some $4.2bn of extra revenue.

President Obama was happy with the deal saying it would help prevent Iran from building a nuclear weapon.
But, some Gulf countries including Saudi Arabia see Iran as a threat and trouble maker in the region.

On the other hand, Iran has survived despite the tough sanctions that shackled its economy, yet a future without sanctions means a lot for its people; other nations would benefit too.

Pakistan has welcomed the understanding reached during the Geneva Accord. Being a brotherly neighboring country of Iran, Pakistan has always underscored the importance of a viable solution to the issue as it would contribute towards stability of the region.

If the Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline project is allowed, it would also help stabilize the region.
Nevertheless, there are countries that did not like the interim deal; they have their own reservations:

Canada is not happy with the historic pact and would not be able to reap any benefit of the deal despite its major rescue effort for freeing the American hostages through issuing fake Canadian passports during the US Embassy Ordeal in1980.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the interim deal was a historic mistake because “the most dangerous regime in the world took a significant step toward obtaining the world’s most dangerous weapon.” He announced that an Israeli team would travel to Washington for talks on the deal."This accord must bring about one outcome: the dismantling of Iran's military nuclear capability," he said.

Under the interim deal, Iran would receive around $7bn in limited, temporary, targeted, and reversible sanctions relief, while a permanent agreement is sought. Moreover, the interim agreement with Iran - the world's fourth-largest oil producer - prompted a fall in oil prices in early Asian trading with Brent crude falling by more than 2%.

Following the talks, Iranian President Rouhani reiterated via a nationwide broadcast last Sunday that his country would never seek nuclear weapons. The Iranian people won as the biggest beneficiary through this deal.
The prevailing tough sanctions, however, were intended only to hit the Iran ruling elite. According to reports, the sanctions against oil and gas exports were instituted to restrict the government finances.

Beyond doubt, the sanctions have caused much more damage than planned making the Iranian people suffer who wanted a quick escape from isolation. They hoped for an improvement of economic conditions through relaxing/removing sanctions by electing Hassan Rouhani as President as new leader.

Indeed, Iran is in the interest of all players in the region. “The US has its interests — because, Iran is a lucrative market. Iranians need a lot of infrastructure for rebuilding that could generate billions of dollars for US and UK oil companies,” said Abdulateef Al-Mulhim, a retired Saudi navy commodore (Arab News). Europeans also want a slice of the expected lucrative oil and gas contracts.

Though, this deal does not scrap the Iranian “uranium enrichment program,” the intent remains to curb the said enrichment, because it has been irritating the concerned West.

The experts’ view: Developing a nuclear device does have implications far beyond weapons proliferation in a war-torn region which is highly obstructive to the world oil and gas supplies, of course.

Iran has six months to satisfy the World that its nuclear technology is for non military purposes only.

"Repairing the Writ of State"

The elected leader doesn’t stand a chance unless he is capable of a qualitative delivery for the welfare of his people at home and abroad. Nevertheless, during his recent visit to the US, Prime Minister Mian Muhammad Nawaz Shareef didn’t efficiently stand up for Pakistan’s serious concerns. He should have spoken up beyond reading his written speech.

As country’s chief executive, the prime minister is expected of being a good spokesperson with above average statesmanship qualities. The other mistake he made was his playing as a Foreign Minister without the required skills. Simply speaking, the honorable prime minister messed up the golden opportunity to persuade Mr. Obama about what was good for Pakistan and the region.
Since the region is on fire mischievously, the main target is none but the vulnerable people and the state of Pakistan through proxy, of course.

Everyone knows with clarity that the embattled country, around a decade ago, used to enjoy a peaceful time. It was almost free from any form of extremism or militancy. Nobody ever heard TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan).
After having emerged, however, the new militant group started getting active against its own people.
We remember when General Safdar Hussein Core Commander Peshawar went to the North Waziristan specifically to negotiate peace. Luckily, there was a peace deal between Naik Muhammad (aged 27), the then chief of the militant group and the visiting Gen. Safdar. But, soon after, Naik Mohammad was shot dead from the sky, and the peace deal collapsed as a result, unfortunately.

Then, the never ending ‘cycle of hostility’ against Pakistan began ferociously.
The fact is “the so called sovereign Pakistan” has been facing roller coaster rides ever since and continues to suffer from the most critical time in its history till today.

It’s an open secret that General Musharraf was the one who initially had allowed the drone strikes in the FATA area; nevertheless, the strikes were intensified in the later years causing the extensive collateral damage.
The expert opinion suggest that the counter productivity of the strikes actually led to the mushrooming growth of many more militant groups who were only targeting Pakistani public, the infra structure, government offices, mosques, even the GHQ. At the same time proxy warriors kept on joining the band wagon which was aimed at nothing but dismantling the country by weakening its writ.

During the tenure of PPP regime, the things were almost out of control simply because of administrative paralysis and sub standard governance. The crimes of power theft, the related energy crisis, the bitterness of circular debt, capital flight and the brain drain were all the natural outcomes.
Defiance of the apex court verdicts was among the norms which proved to be another contributing factor in the overall national scenario.
Consequently, the mega corruption became rampant; hence, the economy has been upside down.

Surprisingly, The Chief Justice of Pakistan Iftikhar Muhammad Choudhry did not invoke Article 190 of the Constitution to enforce the judicial decisions through ordering the army. And, the Army has been hesitant to take any action to restore Karachi Law and Order situation. But, it must be noted the Pak military did an excellent job while freeing Swat from the clutches of Mulla Fazlullah.

Furthermore, the overall situation throughout the country was quite ripe for the social goons and thugs to commit any unlawful activity at will.

It’s worth mentioning that the dedicated work of Karachi Police under IG Shahid Hayat with the help of Rangers has been an immense success so far. Also, the work of Zulfiqar Ahmad Cheema PSP has been a solid contribution while streamlining the passport related irregularities, and because of him, the motorway policing has immensely improved as well.

As suggested by the main stream print and electronic media, there are around forty plus militant groups just in FATA. Hence, negotiation is better than military solution.

Now, the time of “American withdrawal” approaches near - so does the panic, but the problem is far from over.
The Americans have started negotiating with Mulla Umer already.
The Pakistan government was almost close to start a peace dialogue with the TTP, when the TTP Chief was droned to death a few days ago leading to the worst anger of Pakistani Taliban.

The irony is, the new TTP boss Mullah Fazlullah is based in Afghanistan which makes the analysts raise their eyebrows as they smell something really fishy.
Obviously, militant groups cannot operate unless they are groomed and sponsored by the vested interests. Destroying or destabilizing a country is usually the main goal. Most probably, a proxy war against Pakistan is still in progress.

Surely, the TTP is sophisticated enough to manipulate the public opinion; they say, “Not the Pakistani public but the security apparatus will be their target now.”

It’s strongly suggested that the civil society should be on a single page to register their concern with the US instead of attempting to disturb the NATO supplies at this point in time of instability.

Go for more effective approach which is ‘one united voice’ as it would be loud enough to reach the White House.

It’s better for Islamabad to talk to the real stake-holders from tribal areas who are more interested in ending the war on their land rather than imposing a barbaric type of customs which has nothing to do with Islam.
Insisting for a decent table talk to sort out the issues is the best first option beyond any doubt.

But, the TTP appears determined to launch a new wave of attacks across the country. If that be the case, the government must not hesitate while giving total mandate to the armed forces as the last option to crush the militancy.
The government must handle the challenge with diligence to rescue the country via targeting the identified enemy.