A Strategic Game Changer

With hardship comes ease: Hopefully, Pakistan is poised for good economic times ahead: It has Saudi Arabia and China as reliable allies. The fact is both China and Saudi Arabia are also strategically important to each other. No doubt, China being “an all weather friend of Pakistan” wants to further strengthen its existing relationship through investing there heavily in pursuit of long-term gain. The recent CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor) agreements clearly show China’s intent to deepen its ties with Pakistan in the long run. There is an unprecedented state of joy after the successful conclusion of the Chinese president’s visit. Investment of over $46 billion in the energy sector, infrastructure and the projected economic corridor can be a real game changer in the making. The huge Chinese investment is indicative of Pakistan’s sovereignty is safe from all pressures.

Unpleasant facts:

Firstly, Pakistani people welcome the above said investment but it’s painful for them to learn that some members of the elite class of Pakistan have deposited a huge sum totalling around $97 billion in the Swiss banks. Even the ruling elite (current and the former) have deposits in London banks and Dubai banks as well. Most of the money belongs to the national exchequer of Pakistan. Upon re-investing all such money back in Pakistan instead, would serve the interests of Pakistan for sure.

Secondly, discriminating against provinces set a bad example: During the state visit of Chinese president, taking only the Chief Minister Punjab on board while ignoring all other chief ministers altogether is unfair; this sets a bad example. The silly ruling elite are responsible for the resulted irritation, indeed.

Good News: Democratic thoughts are taking over; the security threats against Pakistan are dying down.

And, there is another positive development: The Supreme Court ordered LG polls have been conducted transparently. All of this gives a real boost to the current government.

Furthermore, China’s partnership with Pakistan is said to be hinging on the assumption that there would remain calm from now on; that would open doors for smoother business.

Chinese want smooth sailing through this route while earning profit on their money. The burden of maintaining long-term order clearly lies with Pakistan.

Pak re-positioning:

The fact is Pakistan security forces are already too engaged on many fronts to make Pakistan fully secured from all internal and external threats.

As said above, President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan with huge investment to build an economic corridor from Western China to the Persian Gulf. The Sharifs promised Xi that Pakistan would create a new special division of the Pakistani Army to protect Chinese workers in Pakistan. A special security division consisting of 10,000 troops including 5000 SSG commandos. There are no troops for Saudi Arabia at this time.

Of course, Pakistan’s handling of Yemen factor did irk Saudi Arabia initially, however, Pakistan’s re-assurance eased tension as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif and the army chief Raheel Sharif visited Riyadh for a timely damage control. Nevertheless, Saudi Arabia has rightly realized that even close allies often have other priorities.

The PM Pakistan and Pak army Chief had to fly to Saudi Arabia to explain to the Saudis why Pakistan won't join the war in Yemen.

The corridor: The importance of long awaited development can’t be over emphasized. Certainly, the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)[a] is a development megaproject that aims to connect Gwadar Port in southwestern Pakistan to China’s northwestern autonomous region ofXinjiang, via a network of Highways, Railwaysand pipelines to transport oil and gas.[1]"Pakistan-China friendship is higher than the mountains, deeper than the oceans, sweeter than honey, and stronger than steel." [14]

Hong Kong’s South China Morning Post has described the project in an editorial as the most significant and far-reaching project China has ever put forward. It seeks to expand the Chinese economy by first creating mega project construction opportunities for Chinese firms and then by spreading out markets for its manufactured goods. The plan is to accelerate growth in China’s western regions and then integrate China’s markets with Eurasia, the Middle East and Africa.

Its one component, the Silk Road Economic Belt would connect Western China to Central Asia and Europe overland, while the other, the 21st-Century Maritime Silk Road would substantiate the link between Chinese seaports and the Middle East, Africa and the Mediterranean.

Two kinds of projects are to be implemented under the proposed economic corridor:

A - Infrastructure projects (Gwadar Port, KKR highway, road and rail development (government to government).

B - The 10,000MW of power projects, (most of them to be sponsored by private Pakistani companies).

Chinese state companies do possess a“demonstrated ability” to execute the infrastructure projects efficiently on time.

Security situation: Pakistan Army will provide dedicated security.

The fear: Pak bureaucratic incompetence or corruption may hinder the implementation of these projects.

Benefits: The successful implementation of the economic corridor projects would create ancillary opportunities and benefits as follows:

1.     Energy availability would revive existing industries, such as textiles, to full production and add an estimated 2 percent to Pakistan’s GDP growth.

2.     The improved transportation network would accelerate and expand internal and external trade.

3.     The areas adjacent to the corridor would become attractive locations for manufacturing, agricultural and services industries. Small and medium enterprises included as special beneficiaries.

4.     Employment and economic growth would expand significantly.

The Chinese commitment to the economic corridor has created a significant opportunity for Pakistan to revive its economic and political stability leading to its renewed international image.

Most of the Pakistanis are on the same page with the government for having made a strategic calculation to go all the way with China on this path of prosperity. It is a step in the right direction that can potentially shake regional politics making enough room for geo economics.

________________________________________________

SOURCES:

www.Dawn.com, www.thenews.com,pk,www.nation.com.pk http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news-subclass-       cnt.aspx?id=20150426000082&cid=1101, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China%E2%80%93Pakistan_Economic_Corridor
www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-fromchaos/posts/2015/04/22pakistani-pivot-riedel

Over-reacting to Pak Decision, Not Justified

Yemen is at war with itself, but the vested interests are at play exploiting the sectarian card; cashing in on the “well tailored Shiites-Sunni divide.” The stakeholders, however, fail to realize that war is not a video game; it kills innocent civilians indiscriminately (as a collateral damage). In the current case, the death toll may be far higher than the UNclaim of 736 killed and 2,700 injured - civilians and rebels combined since 26 March.

The problem is Yemen’s dispute has not been fully addressed at the UN level, as they deserve to exercise right of self determination and voting.

Unimaginably, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf countries are over-demanding, they don’t care about Pakistan’s fragile democracy, yet the fact is that the Pak Parliament has rightly passed resolution with regard to participating in the war of Arabs. When would the Arabs learn “the economically injured Pakistan” is already at war with the FATA militants, the BLA separatists and the foreign funded militancy? Despite the challenges, Pakistan confirms its willingness to protect Saudi Arabia.

Nevertheless, if Saudi Arabia is in a mood to fight the Yemeni local rebels, and if Iran arms them, there would be a huge devastation. That’s why, a UN resolution was necessary to de-escalate tensions in the Mid-Eastern region.

Over-reaction is disappointing: The UAE minister’s implied threat to Pakistan was serious one. Pakistan parliament passed a resolution unanimously calling for maintaining neutrality in the Yemen conflict playing a proactive diplomatic role to end the crisis inferring no Pak military involvement in Yemen as requested by Saudi Arabia. The minister warned Pakistan that it would pay a “high price” for its “ambiguous stand.” The Fact is the UAE and other Gulf countries are supporting millions of workers from countries like India, Bangladesh, the Philippines, Nepal, Sri Lanka etc. who outnumber Pakistani workers in almost each country in the Gulf. Yet none of these countries have been approached for military and logistic support in the current Yemen crisis.

The UAE minister needs to know Iran has a common border with Pakistan. Why would Pakistan create hostilities with another neighbor on its western border? India on its eastern border has always been hostile towards Pakistan.

It is estimated that more than three million Pakistani nationals are working in GCC countries and they are remitting about US.1.5 billion dollars per month to Pakistan. If GCC countries decided to expel all Pakistani nationals, it will cause huge economic hardship for Pakistan.

When work visas get issued, the other nations are given preference over Pakistan. Those countries get billions of dollars in remittances from their workers, with Pakistan just getting a fraction. Pakistanis are a nation that never forgets its good friends. The Pakistan government has not backed out and has committed that if the territorial integrity of S Arabia is threatened, it will act

Saudi and Iran proxies and some others from amongst the various warring factions are aggressively active for certain purposes including winning sphere of influence.

Pakistan is genuinely trying to bring a peaceful solution to the crisis through diplomatic means, a move that should be appreciated.

The Saudis have been re-assured by pointing out that it was a strategic ally: That Pakistan was committed to the sanctity of the two Holy Mosques and Saudi sovereignty, territorial integrity and stability; and that Pakistan would stand by the Saudis. Pak Prime Minister reaffirmed Pakistan’s commitment to the territorial security of its allies while stressing for a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the Yemen conflict. Of course, Pakistan will respond to “friends’ genuine demands,” it wants to see an end to hostilities in the region.

PM Nawaz Sharif’s “policy statement on Yemen,” was interpreted as a formal clarification after last Friday’s parliamentary resolution which provoked a hostile response from a UAE minister. Most probably, it was Pak PM’s fault who over-committed himself in his royal visit when the Saudi king himself received him at the tarmac.

Finally, "the UN Security Council resolution targets Abdul Malik al-Houthi and two other senior rebel leaders, Abd al-Khaliq al-Houthi and Abdullah Yahya al-Hakim, as well as Mr Saleh and his eldest son Ahmed, a former commander of the elite Republican Guard force. Ahmed Saleh is the former commander of Yemen's elite Republican Guard. The embargo also applies to "those acting on their behalf or at their direction in Yemen."

The Security Council also imposed a global asset freeze and travel ban on Abdul Malik al-Houthi and Ahmed Saleh. The resolution demanded that the Houthis withdraw from areas they have seized, including the capital Sanaa, and resume negotiations on the democratic transition begun in 2011 when Ali Abdullah Saleh was forced to hand over power to Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi following mass protests. Resolution was passed by 14 votes to nil.

Conclusion:

Pakistani decisions through the national assembly are particularly based on national interest and aspirations to respect the nations and their 'integrity and sovereignty.'

Arab Monarchs must understand that Pakistanis give their blood and sweat to build and maintain the Gulf States on low wages.

Post cease fire, the Yemeni citizens should be facilitated under the UN umbrella to vote on merit for a new government that governs the Yemenis on equality basis.

In the interest of regional peace, Saudi Arabia and Iran must bridge the gap between them.

Pakistan’s approach to foreign policy, especially in the GCC and Middle East needs an overhaul.

Indeed, fruits of preventive diplomacy are countless.

Sources: Wikipedia, Reuter, khaleej times, BBC, nation.com.pk, dawn.com, thenews.com, arabnews.com

Extinguishing Yemen Fire

Yemen is strategically located on the Bab al-Mandab strait (a narrow waterway linking the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden) through which much of the world's oil shipments pass. The Arab countries and Saudi Arabia fear a “Houthi takeover” would threaten free passage through the strait. The Houthis are members of a rebel group, also known as Ansar Allah (Partisans of God), who adhere to a branch of Shia Islam known as Zaidism. And, Zaidis make up one-third of the population and ruled North Yemen under a system known as the imamate for almost 1,000 years until 1962.
The Houthis take their name from Hussein Badr al-Din al-Houthi. He led the group's first uprising in 2004 in an effort to win greater autonomy for their heartland of Saada province, and also to protect Zaidi religious and cultural traditions from perceived encroachment by Sunni Islamists.

Yemenis tried their best to avoid war by offering avenues for a peaceful agreement, but the Houthi terrorists continued with their campaign to control the cities of Yemen.
According to source, “When the Iran backed-Houthis were on the verge of taking control of Aden, the legitimate government’s call to intervene under Article 51 of the UN had to be heeded.”
In the ongoing battle for sphere of influence in the region, Saudi Arabia wants to stop any rise of Iranian influence across the Middle East. Also, the Arabs are looking up to Saudi Arabia to effectively confront Iran’s expansionist designs in the region. While Riyadh had been working along with other like-minded states in a peaceful way to prevent unnecessary escalation. Nevertheless, the Iranian leaders thought that they could destabilize Yemen, change the balance of power in the Gulf region, and get away with it.

Amid the current chaos, Islamabad has hinted at calling upon the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) to play a role to end the conflict in Yemen. The 57-member OIC, which is often criticised for its ineffectiveness, is dominated by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Malaysia and Iran.
Saudi Government had already put forward a formidable coalition to reverse the gains of the Iranian-backed Houthis and to hit them hard so that they understand that their actions are intolerable. The ongoing action against Iran’s proxy is intended to make Iran change its course, as Iran instructed the Houthis to drive all of their Sunni opponents out of politics and to control Yemen.
The Saudi-led “Operation Decisive Storm” is not only targeting the Houthi rebels but also Iran’s ambitions of expansion in the region.
Supported by the International law, the military intervention in Yemen did not begin until all other attempts to stop the Houthi rebels from taking over Yemen had been exhausted.

A 10-nation, Saudi-led coalition is currently carrying out air strikes against rebels in Yemen.
The strikes are in support of President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, who fled after gains by the Shia Houthi rebels.
Furthermore, Arab League chief said, “the Saudi-led offensive against the Houthis would continue until the militia withdraws and surrenders its weapons."
The main fight is between forces loyal to the beleaguered President, Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi, and those allied to Zaidi Shia rebels known as Houthis, who forced Mr Hadi to flee the capital Sanaa in February.

Yemen's security forces have split loyalties; some units back Mr Hadi, and others are with the Houthis and Mr Hadi's predecessor Ali Abdullah Saleh, who has remained politically influential. Mr Hadi is also supported in the predominantly Sunni south of the country by militia known as Popular Resistance Committees and local tribesmen.
After rebel forces closed in on the president's southern stronghold of Aden in late March, a coalition led by Saudi Arabia responded to a request by Mr Hadi to intervene and launched air strikes on Houthi targets.

The conflict between the Houthis and the elected government is also seen as part of a “regional power struggle” between Shia Iran and Sunni Saudi Arabia, which shares a long border with Yemen.
Gulf Arab states have accused Iran of backing the Houthis financially and militarily, though Iran has denied this.
President Hadi, who is recognised as Yemen's legitimate leader by the international community, managed to escape to Aden, which he declared the de facto capital.
Cautious Pakistani resistance to the idea of getting involved in Yemen or even on Saudi soil is in the headlines all over.

However, Pakistan (recipient of 17 billion dollars from the KSA) owes a lot to Saudi Arabia in times of military needs. Yet, at the same time, Islamabad has to maintain its neighborly relations with Tehran.
Whatever the case maybe, it is time for the Pakistani government to publicly and clearly set out what it is and is not willing to do in Yemen or on behalf of Saudi Arabia and on what terms and for which reasons.

Available options:
If Saudi Arabia is under threat, Pakistan cannot stay neutral, however, the best option is to act defensively staying inside the kingdom of Saudi Arabia, because the Houthi rebels are Muslims who respect Mecca and Medina too, and there is very slim chance that they will even get closer to these places.
Pakistan should send a delegation to Iran and try to help end this conflict by acting as a neutral umpire.
Saudi Arabia should stop dragging Pakistan into their hate club against Iran! Pakistan should stay neutral and discourage a war between Shias and Sunnis.
The Houthi militants need to understand that they are Yemenis in the first place. At the end, it is in their best interest to reach a political solution.
=======================================================================
Resources:
www.wikipedia.com, www.dawn.com, www.arabnews.com, www.bbc.com,www.nation.com.pk,www.thenews.com.pk